By Mindy Roberts, Environmental Assessment Program and Andrew Kolosseus, Water Quality Program

Our two reports evaluate the influence of people, climate, and the Pacific Ocean on oxygen levels in South and Central Puget Sound as well as the larger Salish Sea. Two of our just-released scientific studies show the impacts of human nitrogen sources on dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound now and into the future.

Impacts are greatest in parts of South and Central Puget Sound, although the Pacific Ocean has the largest influence overall.

We plan no regulatory changes as a result of the findings. Our next steps are to refine our analyses. We will continue to coordinate with cities, counties, tribes, and other stakeholders on next steps.

We wrote this blog to let you know more about our findings.

Oxygen matters…

Dissolved oxygen levels have been decreasing in Puget Sound. This is troubling because fish and other aquatic life need oxygen just like humans do. Fish use gills just like we use our lungs — imagine how the low oxygen levels on the top of Mount Rainier feel to climbers. Similarly, when oxygen levels in the water are not high enough, fish can become stressed or die.

What’s causing the oxygen levels to decline? Is it us?

Ecology began asking those questions in the late 1990s, but it wasn’t until recent computer model developments that we’ve been able to tease apart influences in the complex ecosystem of Puget Sound.

What’s our footprint?

As the population grows in our region, our wastewater inputs and developed lands increase. Our daily activities generate more nitrogen, an essential element for growing plants, than a forested area does. We also add nitrogen through our wastewater treatment plants and septic systems, as well as in runoff from fertilizers and domestic animals.

When we add too much nitrogen, which is a fertilizer, excess algae blooms in marine waters like Puget Sound. That algae dies and decays, using up oxygen in the process. But how much do we worsen oxygen?

Both studies found that our actions do worsen oxygen in some regions. Low oxygen is predominantly influenced by ocean inputs and local circulation patterns.

We also projected oxygen into the future — to the year 2070, when our region’s population will nearly double from 4.2 million people today to about 8 million. That means more wastewater, more developed lands, and more nitrogen.

Where are our biggest impacts on oxygen?

While our biggest nutrient sources are from our biggest cities where most of us live, resulting impacts are showing up miles away. The South Sound study found that Carr, Case, Totten, Eld, and Budd Inlets in South Puget Sound, as well as East Passage in Central Puget Sound, respond the most to nitrogen inputs.

We also looked at the effect of human nitrogen sources throughout the U.S. and Canadian waters of the Salish Sea. Again, the greatest impacts were found in South and Central Puget Sound, both now and into the future. Circulation patterns make the South Sound a zone where ocean and human nutrients and their impacts get concentrated.

What about the ocean? How much of an impact does it have?

Pacific Ocean oxygen concentrations have been declining over a 50-year period. If those trends continue through 2070, oxygen levels would decline strongly in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Strait of Georgia, and Hood Canal. We’re interested in what’s behind the ocean trends.

Climate change affects oxygen as well

Air temperatures will increase in the future, also warming the water. Warmer water holds less oxygen, so oxygen levels would decline further. This effect shows up strongest in shallow areas like Bellingham Bay.

The amount and timing of flow from the rivers will also change due to changing snowmelt. This speeds up or slows down circulation and brings in more or less nitrogen to Puget Sound at different times of the year.

What are the next steps?

These are the first detailed analyses of how Puget Sound oxygen concentrations respond to our activities, ocean conditions, and climate change. Other regions like Chesapeake Bay and the Gulf of Mexico have been evaluating these questions for decades.

We’ve clearly learned a great deal about how Puget Sound works. Over the next few years, we will improve and refine our computer prediction models. We will focus our effort on improving key processes such as bottom sediment influences.

We do not yet know whether reductions in human sources will be needed to meet water quality standards for dissolved oxygen. It is too early for regulatory changes. The next updates will be in 2015.

Thanks to staff, funding, and perseverance

These two studies provide a strong technical foundation for understanding a complex topic like dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound. Dozens of staff from Ecology, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, UW Climate Impacts Group, and partners have contributed to this work over the years — check out our web pages for a full list of publications and acknowledgments.

We lend a huge thanks to numerous monitoring and modeling staff and managers in Ecology’s Environmental Assessment and Water Quality Programs, who worked through science and policy questions for the past eight years.

And we thank more than 40 cities, counties, tribes, and other partners who provided insight and recommendations on numerous presentations and publications.

Lastly, we would not have achieved these accomplishments without funding support from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under several National Estuary Program grants.

The two studies can be found online:

• South Puget Sound DissolvedOxygen Study: Water Quality Model Calibration and Scenarios
  
  
• Dissolved Oxygen Assessmentfor Puget Sound and the Straits: Impacts of Current and Future Human NitrogenSources and Climate Change through 2070

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